The direction of the EU will be decided over the next four days, when 370 million voters across the bloc cast their ballots in elections for the European Parliament.
Key jobs, including Ursula von der Leyen’s bid for a second five-year term at the helm of the European Commission, will be affected by the outcome of the election.
Although pan-European, the vote consists of 27 national contests that will each reveal how citizens feel about the bloc’s response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II, persistent inflation and the arrivals almost a record number of immigrants.
Here are five things to watch out for when the results start rolling in on Sunday night.
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Is Ursula von der Leyen on course for a second term?
The Chairman of the Commission is running as the main candidate (Spitzenkandidaten) for the center-right European People’s Party, which is expected to win the majority of seats in parliament.
Its confirmation is a two-step process. First, she must convince the European Council of EU leaders to back her for a second term as part of a wider job package, including the next council president and the bloc’s top diplomat.
She then needs to secure more than 361 votes in the 720-member parliament, having passed by nine votes in 2019.
Some MPs from its pro-EU majority have declared they will not back him, forcing him to reach out to the Greens and the nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group led by Italy’s Giorgia Meloni.
A senior EU diplomat told the FT she had an “80-90 per cent chance in the council, 60 per cent in parliament”. If it is rejected by parliament, EU leaders will have to agree on a new troika to fill key posts.
How big is the swing to the right?
A centre-right majority could enter parliament for the first time, counting the EPP, ECR and the Identity and Democracy group led by France’s Marine Le Pen, plus non-aligned MEPs from Germany and Hungary.
Having already worked with the ECR on weaker environmental rules, the EPP will be under pressure to strike a deal with the Socialists and Liberals to maintain its pro-EU majority.
Both S&D and Renew have ruled out official collaboration with the ultraconservative ECR and the far-right group Identity and Democracy.
If the ECR overtakes Renew as the third largest force, it could give it the right to claim the posts of foreign policy chief and powerful EU commissioner, in addition to chairing influential parliamentary committees.
How influential will the far right be?
Within the European Parliament, lawmakers from national parties come together to form groups that receive money, staff and committee chair roles.
But the populist right has so far failed to form a ‘mega-group’, as its members are divided, particularly on Russia and the extent to which they should work for the legislation or simply oppose it systematically.
ID has traditionally been pro-Russia and in favor of leaving the EU. However, as Le Pen and other politicians in the group seek to appeal to voters in the upcoming national elections, they have moderated their discourse.
Le Pen last month expelled the Alternative for Germany (AfD) from the ID after its front-runner said not all members of the Nazi SS paramilitary group were criminals. It wants to form a supergroup with Melon’s ECR and members of Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party, who have been expelled from the EPP and did not join any other group in the outgoing parliament.
Who are the national winners and losers?
In France, a heavy defeat would further weaken President Emmanuel Macron and make it even more difficult to stop Le Pen’s campaign for the presidency in 2027. The RN is expected to come first, overtaking Macron’s party which could fall into a disastrous third place.
AfD’s growth in Germany has been hampered by scandal. But he is still likely to defeat all members of the ruling coalition, in a further blow to embattled Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a Social Democrat.
Italy’s Giorgia Meloni will strengthen her position in Europe, winning an expected 20 MEPs, up from 5. Domestically, she will assert her dominance over the Italian right, crushing Matteo Salvini’s League party, which is in id.
In Austria, a victory for the far-right Freedom party could foreshadow a victory in the country’s general election in October.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will face his most serious test in years against a new opposition leader, Péter Magyar. His Fidesz party is predicted to lose three of its 12 seats. An even worse result could damage his ambition to forge a union of populist and far-right parties in Europe.
Will attendance drop?
In 2019 it was 50.7 percent, up 8 percentage points after a decades-long downward trend. Another decline would raise questions about the EU’s democratic legitimacy. Many pro-European politicians, including parliament president Roberta Metsola of the EPP, have tried to motivate young people to vote.
But recent elections in the Netherlands and France show that they are just as likely to choose the extremes.
Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration message last year resonated with young Dutch people struggling to find affordable housing and well-paid jobs, helping the veteran far-right leader form a coalition government for the first time.
Heavy use of social media has led to warnings that Russia, China and others are seeking to influence the election through fake accounts and disinformation. A member of parliament has been accused of spying for China, while several MEPs are suspected of receiving payments to spread Russian propaganda.
How will the European parliamentary elections change the EU? Join Ben Hall, Europe editor, and colleagues in Paris, Rome, Brussels and Germany for a subscriber webinar on June 12. Register now and ask your questions in our panel at ft.com/euwebinar
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